German Elections One Month Ahead

We are now just one month ahead of the 2017 German federal elections and, contrary to what many expected earlier this year, the result is likely to be an easy win for German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Latest polls suggest that Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will secure around 39% of the seats in the Bundestag on September 24, guaranteeing Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor of Germany. Although these figures would represent of loss of seats for the CDU, the party and its leader have much to celebrate. Merkel began the year with plummeting approval rates, reaching a historic low of 38%, as doubts about the future of the European Union dominated the debates in the international press. However, as months passed by, events and home and abroad turned the tide in favor of the German chancellor.

The French elections marked the beginning of Merkel’s upturn. The defeat of Marine Le Pen was a hard blow on Eurosceptic parties in Europe, which were expecting the leader of the Front National to further weaken the European Union with the possibility of a Frexit. Concomitantly, news about refugees were losing momentum, undermining the position of the right-wing populist parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although their performance in the polls seems to have stabilized around the 9%, the AfD experienced a steady decline since the French election motivated, among other factors, by disputes within the party.

Merkel accumulated political victories in the weeks following the French election. In mid-May, Merkel’s CDU performed greatly in the regional election, managing to win the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, home to nearly a quarter of the German population and stronghold of its coalition partner and current adversary at the federal level, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). By the end of the month, Merkel changed the tone of her discourse adopting a firm stance on European affairs, seizing the opportunity given by the disastrous European tour of the American president Donald Trump. Although not quoting them directly, Merkel openly criticized Britain and the United States and argued it was time for Europeans to take their destinies into their own hand. The speech was well received by the German public opinion as demonstrated by polls conducted in June showing the SPD 10 points behind the CDU and Merkel’s popularity almost 30 points above that of Schultz.

The months of July, August and September saw the gap between to two parties widen. Immigration and refugees are no longer first page topics in the German media and not a top priority for most Germans. Concurrently, unemployment rates have been decreasing, reaching 3.8% in June, and wages are expected to grow around 2.5% a year, while inflation remains below 2%. Consequently, Merkel consolidated her image among the Germans as a source of steady and effective leadership making it hard for the Martin Schultz and the SPD to reverse the current scenario.

Can the SPD still win?

It is certainly not impossible. A recent poll published by the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine indicates 46% of German voters remain undecided, sparking fears of a low turnout as 45% declared they believe the result is already decided in favor of the CDU. In addition, the preoccupations of German voters seem to be aligned with the center-left platform of the SPD, factor that, if exploited effectively, could lead to a better performance by the party led by Martin Schultz.

However, a victory by Shultz and the SPD seems highly unlikely. Merkel’s record as chancellor speaks for itself, making Germans less likely to bet on replacing the current chancellor, perceived as a source of stability and security. Moreover, Merkel neutralized the SPD by adopting elements of its domestic and foreign agenda during her previous term as chancellor. Thus, despite Schultz’s best efforts, his proposals for improvements in Germans education and social welfare, issues popular among German voters, do not resonate as something distinctly associated with the Social Democrats.

What to expect from Merkel’s fourth term?

If projections are confirmed, however, Merkel is likely to face serious challenges already in the first days following the election. With the dissolution of the Great Coalition (CDU + SPD), Merkel is likely to be short of a majority in the Bundestag which might create obstacles to the approval of more conservative points on her agenda, including the increase in Germany’s defense investments, crucial to the Franco-German project of a European Defense Union.

Without the SPD, CDU is likely to partner once more with the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), repeating the governing coalition during Merkel’s second term as chancellor. However, if the current figures are confirmed, the CDU will remain short of a majority since the FDP is currently scoring only 9% in the polls. Merkel’s hopes are, therefore, deposited in convincing those undecided, hoping perhaps for a surprising increase in the number of votes for the FDP. Although Merkel’s record allows her some flexibility around the center of the political spectrum, a government formed by a CDU/FDP coalition will possibly result in a more liberal, right-leaning version of Merkel, and attempt to appease its allies resentful of being left out of the parliament after supporting Merkel between 2009 and 2013. In CDU and FDP fail to reach majority the Greens are likely to be the ones included, forming what is known as the Jamaica coalition. Considering that scenario, Merkel would have trouble reconciling some antagonistic positions of her allies such as FDPs proposal of tax cuts and the Greens desire to tax the “super-rich”.

In sum, the scenario one month ahead of the Germany federal election is complex and, although Angela Merkel will probably secure her fourth term as chancellor, the leader of the CDU has a turbulent path ahead of her. For now, we can do little more than waiting until September 24 when we will finally know what kind of government Germans have chosen for themselves.