Debate: Schulz fails to impress German voters

A night with no surprises. Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz starred a rather boring and predictable debate where several major issues were neglected or altogether absent. The format certainly did not help. The four (yes, four!) presenters that took turns at asking questions to Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schulz rarely confronted the candidates on their points of disagreement, posed few follow-up questions, and poorly managed the time dedicated to each topic on the agenda. While the topic of refugees, an issue relevant only to 29% of German voters, occupied the first thirty minutes of the scheduled 90 min debate, issues such as the German housing market, education, and the digital economy received little or no attention from the candidates or the moderators.

Circumstances also did not help Mr. Schulz. Going on the offensive, as many expected would mean criticizing his own party (SPD), current partner in the governing coalition, reason that probably led Schulz to adopt a more diplomatic approach. However, as the topic went on from the issue of refugees to Turkey, spectators witnessed a debate where the opposing parties disagreed only mildly on most issues. Schulz and Merkel agreed, with minor differences, on the issue of refugees, on Muslim integration and on the accession of Turkey to the EU. By the mark of 45 min., the only major disagreement between the candidates was on “road tolls”, certainly not the most important issue on the agenda of the next Chancellor.

Highlights

Refugees: Merkel defended her decision to admit refugees during the 2015 crisis. Schulz agreed but highlighted the lack of coordination between Germany and the other European partners.

Integration: Both candidates acknowledged integrating migrants is a complicated task. None of them, however, questioned the feasibility of that task. For both candidates, Muslims can be fully integrated into the German society.

North Korea: Both candidates agree with a diplomatic solution. Schulz, however, questioned the ability of President Donald Trump to manage this crisis. Merkel, on the other hand, argued a solution without the American president would be difficult.

Turkey: Considered Schulz main foreign policy blunder. The SPD candidate promised to cease conversations on the Turkish accession to the EU. Although she claimed to have held this position earlier than her opponent, Merkel was more cautious and diplomatic defending conversations should be conditioned to the maintenance of Turkish democratic order.

Security: Both candidates agreed preventive measures should be taken to combat terrorism. Neither Merkel nor Schulz provided details of how this should be done.

Dieselgate: Schulz criticized Merkel for being too slow to respond to the revelations that VW cheated pollution tests. Merkel responded by saying the carmakers must “right their wrongs” but did not go into detail on how and when this will occur.

Social welfare: As expected, the point in which Schulz had his best performance. The leader of the SPD highlighted the situation of poor pensioners while the current Chancellor dodged by appealing to her job creation record.

A return of the Great Coalition

Perhaps the most relevant question of the debate was regarding the possibility of a reedition of the current coalition (CDU+SPD). Although Schulz attempted to dodge the question by stating he “wants to be Chancellor”, none of the candidates ruled out the possibility of a Grand Coalition government following the election on September 24. As opinion polls indicate, Merkel’s CDU is likely to remain short of a majority without the Schulz’s SPD. Other possible coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens (Grüne) are performing poorly in latest polls and a coalition involving solely one of these parties might not be enough for the CDU to reach the 299 MPs required to form a stable government. A Jamaica coalition (CDU+FDP+Grüne) would place Merkel in a delicate position of having to reconcile partners with very different and often opposing agendas. Merkel ruled out any possible partnership with the right-wing populists of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Thus, despite the frictions that emerged between CDU and SPD during the campaign, a Grand Coalition would grant Merkel a solid majority and a stable government likely to support the reforms she intends to implement at national and European levels.

Potential Impact on Election Results

Merkel might not have won the debate, but Schulz certainly lost. This was the last major opportunity for the SPD candidate to change the scenario in favor of his party and he failed. A poll released by German broadcaster ARD immediately after the debate revealed 55% of the spectators found Merkel more persuasive and 64% perceived the German Chancellor as more competent than her adversary.

These figures, however, do not mean the CDU will experience an increase in its performance in the polls. Perceived as the clear winner of this election, Merkel’s party is likely to remain steady or even decrease in the event of a low turnout. During the debate, Merkel also did not appeal to the more conservative part of her base who probably saw with discomfort the level of agreement between the Chancellor and Martin Schulz. The exception was, perhaps, when Merkel was asked about marriage equality. Despite providing indications earlier this year that she is personally in favor of marriage equality, the Chancellor rambled in an attempt not to upset CDU’s more conservative sister party from Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The AfD is the party expected to benefit from those voters unsatisfied with Merkel’s flirting with the left.

The SPD, on the other hand, might experience a more substantial loss in the next polls. Schulz failed to present himself as an alternative to Merkel, and instead laid bare the similarities between his positions and those of the Chancellor. This might benefit the other two major parties on the left of the political spectrum, the Greens and the Left (Linke).

Despite the likely fluctuations in the polls, the impact of the debate tends not to be strong enough to alter the outcome. Merkel will win and the SPD will be the second largest party in the parliament. However, in order to determine what type of government will Merkel’s fourth term be, we need to wait for who will come out third and what coalitions will be formed following September 24.