German Elections Archives - Vinícius Bivar

Debate: Schulz fails to impress German voters

By Vinícius Bivar | 7 de September de 2017

A night with no surprises. Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz starred a rather boring and predictable debate where several major issues were neglected or altogether absent. The format certainly did not help. The four (yes, four!) presenters that took turns at asking questions to Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schulz rarely confronted the candidates on their points of disagreement, posed few follow-up questions, and poorly managed the time dedicated to each topic on the agenda. While the topic of refugees, an issue relevant only to 29% of German voters, occupied the first thirty minutes of the scheduled 90 min debate, issues such as the German housing market, education, and the digital economy received little or no attention from the candidates or the moderators.

Circumstances also did not help Mr. Schulz. Going on the offensive, as many expected would mean criticizing his own party (SPD), current partner in the governing coalition, reason that probably led Schulz to adopt a more diplomatic approach. However, as the topic went on from the issue of refugees to Turkey, spectators witnessed a debate where the opposing parties disagreed only mildly on most issues. Schulz and Merkel agreed, with minor differences, on the issue of refugees, on Muslim integration and on the accession of Turkey to the EU. By the mark of 45 min., the only major disagreement between the candidates was on “road tolls”, certainly not the most important issue on the agenda of the next Chancellor.

Highlights

Refugees: Merkel defended her decision to admit refugees during the 2015 crisis. Schulz agreed but highlighted the lack of coordination between Germany and the other European partners.

Integration: Both candidates acknowledged integrating migrants is a complicated task. None of them, however, questioned the feasibility of that task. For both candidates, Muslims can be fully integrated into the German society.

North Korea: Both candidates agree with a diplomatic solution. Schulz, however, questioned the ability of President Donald Trump to manage this crisis. Merkel, on the other hand, argued a solution without the American president would be difficult.

Turkey: Considered Schulz main foreign policy blunder. The SPD candidate promised to cease conversations on the Turkish accession to the EU. Although she claimed to have held this position earlier than her opponent, Merkel was more cautious and diplomatic defending conversations should be conditioned to the maintenance of Turkish democratic order.

Security: Both candidates agreed preventive measures should be taken to combat terrorism. Neither Merkel nor Schulz provided details of how this should be done.

Dieselgate: Schulz criticized Merkel for being too slow to respond to the revelations that VW cheated pollution tests. Merkel responded by saying the carmakers must “right their wrongs” but did not go into detail on how and when this will occur.

Social welfare: As expected, the point in which Schulz had his best performance. The leader of the SPD highlighted the situation of poor pensioners while the current Chancellor dodged by appealing to her job creation record.

A return of the Great Coalition

Perhaps the most relevant question of the debate was regarding the possibility of a reedition of the current coalition (CDU+SPD). Although Schulz attempted to dodge the question by stating he “wants to be Chancellor”, none of the candidates ruled out the possibility of a Grand Coalition government following the election on September 24. As opinion polls indicate, Merkel’s CDU is likely to remain short of a majority without the Schulz’s SPD. Other possible coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens (Grüne) are performing poorly in latest polls and a coalition involving solely one of these parties might not be enough for the CDU to reach the 299 MPs required to form a stable government. A Jamaica coalition (CDU+FDP+Grüne) would place Merkel in a delicate position of having to reconcile partners with very different and often opposing agendas. Merkel ruled out any possible partnership with the right-wing populists of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Thus, despite the frictions that emerged between CDU and SPD during the campaign, a Grand Coalition would grant Merkel a solid majority and a stable government likely to support the reforms she intends to implement at national and European levels.

Potential Impact on Election Results

Merkel might not have won the debate, but Schulz certainly lost. This was the last major opportunity for the SPD candidate to change the scenario in favor of his party and he failed. A poll released by German broadcaster ARD immediately after the debate revealed 55% of the spectators found Merkel more persuasive and 64% perceived the German Chancellor as more competent than her adversary.

These figures, however, do not mean the CDU will experience an increase in its performance in the polls. Perceived as the clear winner of this election, Merkel’s party is likely to remain steady or even decrease in the event of a low turnout. During the debate, Merkel also did not appeal to the more conservative part of her base who probably saw with discomfort the level of agreement between the Chancellor and Martin Schulz. The exception was, perhaps, when Merkel was asked about marriage equality. Despite providing indications earlier this year that she is personally in favor of marriage equality, the Chancellor rambled in an attempt not to upset CDU’s more conservative sister party from Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The AfD is the party expected to benefit from those voters unsatisfied with Merkel’s flirting with the left.

The SPD, on the other hand, might experience a more substantial loss in the next polls. Schulz failed to present himself as an alternative to Merkel, and instead laid bare the similarities between his positions and those of the Chancellor. This might benefit the other two major parties on the left of the political spectrum, the Greens and the Left (Linke).

Despite the likely fluctuations in the polls, the impact of the debate tends not to be strong enough to alter the outcome. Merkel will win and the SPD will be the second largest party in the parliament. However, in order to determine what type of government will Merkel’s fourth term be, we need to wait for who will come out third and what coalitions will be formed following September 24.

German Elections One Month Ahead

By Vinícius Bivar | 24 de August de 2017

We are now just one month ahead of the 2017 German federal elections and, contrary to what many expected earlier this year, the result is likely to be an easy win for German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Latest polls suggest that Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will secure around 39% of the seats in the Bundestag on September 24, guaranteeing Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor of Germany. Although these figures would represent of loss of seats for the CDU, the party and its leader have much to celebrate. Merkel began the year with plummeting approval rates, reaching a historic low of 38%, as doubts about the future of the European Union dominated the debates in the international press. However, as months passed by, events and home and abroad turned the tide in favor of the German chancellor.

The French elections marked the beginning of Merkel’s upturn. The defeat of Marine Le Pen was a hard blow on Eurosceptic parties in Europe, which were expecting the leader of the Front National to further weaken the European Union with the possibility of a Frexit. Concomitantly, news about refugees were losing momentum, undermining the position of the right-wing populist parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although their performance in the polls seems to have stabilized around the 9%, the AfD experienced a steady decline since the French election motivated, among other factors, by disputes within the party.

Merkel accumulated political victories in the weeks following the French election. In mid-May, Merkel’s CDU performed greatly in the regional election, managing to win the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, home to nearly a quarter of the German population and stronghold of its coalition partner and current adversary at the federal level, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). By the end of the month, Merkel changed the tone of her discourse adopting a firm stance on European affairs, seizing the opportunity given by the disastrous European tour of the American president Donald Trump. Although not quoting them directly, Merkel openly criticized Britain and the United States and argued it was time for Europeans to take their destinies into their own hand. The speech was well received by the German public opinion as demonstrated by polls conducted in June showing the SPD 10 points behind the CDU and Merkel’s popularity almost 30 points above that of Schultz.

The months of July, August and September saw the gap between to two parties widen. Immigration and refugees are no longer first page topics in the German media and not a top priority for most Germans. Concurrently, unemployment rates have been decreasing, reaching 3.8% in June, and wages are expected to grow around 2.5% a year, while inflation remains below 2%. Consequently, Merkel consolidated her image among the Germans as a source of steady and effective leadership making it hard for the Martin Schultz and the SPD to reverse the current scenario.

Can the SPD still win?

It is certainly not impossible. A recent poll published by the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine indicates 46% of German voters remain undecided, sparking fears of a low turnout as 45% declared they believe the result is already decided in favor of the CDU. In addition, the preoccupations of German voters seem to be aligned with the center-left platform of the SPD, factor that, if exploited effectively, could lead to a better performance by the party led by Martin Schultz.

However, a victory by Shultz and the SPD seems highly unlikely. Merkel’s record as chancellor speaks for itself, making Germans less likely to bet on replacing the current chancellor, perceived as a source of stability and security. Moreover, Merkel neutralized the SPD by adopting elements of its domestic and foreign agenda during her previous term as chancellor. Thus, despite Schultz’s best efforts, his proposals for improvements in Germans education and social welfare, issues popular among German voters, do not resonate as something distinctly associated with the Social Democrats.

What to expect from Merkel’s fourth term?

If projections are confirmed, however, Merkel is likely to face serious challenges already in the first days following the election. With the dissolution of the Great Coalition (CDU + SPD), Merkel is likely to be short of a majority in the Bundestag which might create obstacles to the approval of more conservative points on her agenda, including the increase in Germany’s defense investments, crucial to the Franco-German project of a European Defense Union.

Without the SPD, CDU is likely to partner once more with the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), repeating the governing coalition during Merkel’s second term as chancellor. However, if the current figures are confirmed, the CDU will remain short of a majority since the FDP is currently scoring only 9% in the polls. Merkel’s hopes are, therefore, deposited in convincing those undecided, hoping perhaps for a surprising increase in the number of votes for the FDP. Although Merkel’s record allows her some flexibility around the center of the political spectrum, a government formed by a CDU/FDP coalition will possibly result in a more liberal, right-leaning version of Merkel, and attempt to appease its allies resentful of being left out of the parliament after supporting Merkel between 2009 and 2013. In CDU and FDP fail to reach majority the Greens are likely to be the ones included, forming what is known as the Jamaica coalition. Considering that scenario, Merkel would have trouble reconciling some antagonistic positions of her allies such as FDPs proposal of tax cuts and the Greens desire to tax the “super-rich”.

In sum, the scenario one month ahead of the Germany federal election is complex and, although Angela Merkel will probably secure her fourth term as chancellor, the leader of the CDU has a turbulent path ahead of her. For now, we can do little more than waiting until September 24 when we will finally know what kind of government Germans have chosen for themselves.